NFL 2005 Divisional Playoff Predictions

Last week went exactly as I had predicted. The pretenders and not-yet-ready-for-prime-time teams were exposed. Of course, that makes this week even harder because the fluff has been taken out, leaving only the truly deserving teams.

Onto this week....

Redskins @ Seahawks
That Washington defense sure is good. Wow. Beyond that, what I liked about the Redskin last week was simply that they found a way to win. The offense, so potent much of the season, did next to nothing. Forced out of their typical game plan, they adapted and found a way to win. So many teams fall apart if they can't play their game. This is especially true of high powered offenses. Witness the Greatest Show on Turf Rams or the Colts against the Patriots. With their big offense taken away, they didn't know how to play or what to do. The ability to adapt is one of the things that makes for championships. Washington's defense is good enough to really disrupt the Seahawk offense. Can the Seahawks adapt?

The two teams met early in the regular season, with the Redskins taking the win. Seattle proceeded to win the next 11 games, only losing the meaningless season finale with the backups. The Redskins, on the other hand, lost 6 of the next 8 games, a slide that resulted in their slot as the 6th seed in the playoffs rather than something much higher.

I haven't seen much of Seattle this year so I really don't have a good feel for the team. I know they are solid on both sides of the ball, and are rested. They also have a nice home field advantage, if for no other reason than they are the only playoff team in the Pacific time zone, and the 'Skins have to come all the way across country for the game. Prediction: Seattle.

Patriots @ Broncos
Fortune has smiled on New England, giving them the best path through the playoffs they could have wanted. First they got the Jaguars, certainly the worst team in the AFC playoffs. Now they get Denver. Not that Denver's a pushover. They just aren't the Colts.

The two teams met earlier in the year, of course, and Denver came away with the win thanks to aggressive passing from Plummer, attacking the vulnerable Patriot secondary. The Patriots are a better team now, with Seymour and Bruschi back on the field. But that secondary is still weak, and Denver can light it up in the passing game. New England can somewhat mask that weakness with their superb pass rush up front. But that may not work against Denver, because flushing Plummer from the pocket and making him throw and make plays on the run plays into his strengths as a quarterback, unlike most others.

A lot of commentators are taking New England in this game. I would like to (I am, after all, a Patriot fan), and I have wrestled with the pick all week, but I cannot go along. I see Denver's offense having more success against the New England defense than the Patriot offense will against the Bronco defense. Denver has the better running game, and the Patriot weakness in the secondary will allow more big pass plays. Perhaps not as many big pass plays as last time, but enough. Prediction: Broncos.

Steelers @ Colts
This should be a very good game. Both teams have what it takes to beat the other. The Steelers win by beating the opposition into submission. They start with Fast Willie Parker, keeping the opposing defense on the field for long stretches chasing down this elusive runner. In the second half, when the defense is starting to gasp for air, they bring out the sledgehammer known as the Bus to mercilessly bludgeon the unlucky defenders until they roll over and say no màs. This is how they beat the Bengals last week, and how you beat the Colts. Keep Peyton and company on the sidelines with long possessions dominated by the running game, and blitz him like mad when he's on the field. This approach has been patented by the Patriots. The way to counter the Steeler game is to jump out quickly on offense and force the Steelers to play from behind, which takes away some of the running game and makes them try to win with the passing game. This is how Indy won the regular season matchup, and what Cincy tried to do with the second play of the game being a 60+ yard pass play.

For this game, everything points in favor of Indy. They were the best team in the league all season, the key players are all healthy, and they are well rested after the bye. What I don't like is that they haven't played a meaningful game in a while, not since the Chargers spoiled the run to perfection, and the starters haven't played a strong game for even longer, not since the week before the Charger game. And one still has to wonder just how much Dungy has his mind in the game, with his son's death still an open wound.

The Steelers have been playing in playoff mode for several weeks, knowing they had to pretty much run the table after the loss to the Bengals to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh may well be the best 6th seeded team in recent memory.

Does that all mean I'm going for the upset? There's a chance, but I have to go with Indy. The key offensive players are just too good, and they are veteran enough to shake off any rust they may have quickly. The Steeler defense hasn't looked as great as it needs to be, losing to both Indy and Cincy in the regular season. They were just unable to keep up with the high power attack both teams brought, nor to slow it down on defense. Overcoming the Bengals last week was good, but it was the Kitna Bengals, not the Palmer Bengals. And the Bengals are not the Colts. So I am going against both of my teams in these playoffs. Prediction: Colts.

Panthers @ Bears
The regular season matchup between these two teams is the game that put Chicago on the map, showing they could play with the big boys in the league. I, like most everyone else, took the Panthers in that game. I still have to. Both teams feature stellar defenses, so the pick comes down to who has the better offense. The answer is easy: Carolina. The Bears run well, but their starting QB has played a total of 6 quarters this season, with total production of 1 TD, 2 INT, and about 250 yards. (Orton had that many TD passes in the just the first matchup between the two teams.) The man has barely 1300 yards passing and 4 TDs in his career! As I said last week, Lovie Smith made a huge mistake not playing Grossman in the season finale. There was little value in resting a guy who has barely played, and has rarely even suited up, in the last 15 months. All he will get for it is a whole lot of inexperience and a bit of rust on what little experience Rex does have. If the Panther offensive line can do a better job keeping the pass rush off Delhomme than they did in November, Carolina will take it easily. Prediction: Panthers.

Last Week: 4-0
Season: 165-91
Playoffs: 4-0